MONSOON WATCH

• Southwest monsoon has further advanced over some more parts of Maharashtra, most parts of Telangana and Orissa, remaining parts of coastal Andhra Pradesh, Bay of Bengal, West Bengal and some parts of Chhattisgarh, Jharkhand and Bihar.

• The northern limit of monsoon (NLM) passes through 22.0°N/60.0°E, Porbandar, Veraval,

Dahanu, Nasik, Adilabad, Kanker, Jharsuguda, Ranchi, Bhagalpur, Forbesganj and 27.0°N/87.0°E. (Onset map enclosed)

• Southwest monsoon was vigorous over Vidarbha and active over Orissa, Kerala Coastal Karnataka and South Interior Karnataka. (Activity map enclosed)

• Conditions are favourable for further advance of southwest monsoon over some more parts of Maharashtra, rest parts of Telangana, Bihar, Jharkhand, Orissa and Chhattisgarh and some parts of east Madhya Pradesh during next 2-3 days.

• The satellite KALPANA-I cloud imagery at 1430 hrs IST shows convective clouds over Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand, Orissa, Nagaland , Manipur, Mizoram & Tripura, coastal Karnataka, Kerala, parts of eastcentral Arabian Sea, central and north Bay of Bengal and Andaman Sea. Low/medium clouds are seen over rest parts of the country. (Satellite picture enclosed)

Synoptic features and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) Guidance

• Yesterday’s low pressure area has intensified into a well marked low and now lies over northwest Bay of Bengal and adjoining areas of coastal Gangetic West Bengal and Orissa with associated cyclonic circulation extending upto mid-tropospheric levels

• The trough on sea level chart passes through Ferozepur, Delhi, Hardoi, Varanasi, Hazaribag, thence into centre of the well marked low pressure area.

• Yesterday’s upper air cyclonic circulation over East Uttar Pradesh and neighbourhood persists in the lower levels.

• The Off shore trough now runs from Coastal Karnataka to Kerala coast.

• Numerical weather prediction models suggest that the low pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal is likely to intensify and initially move north-northwestwards.

Major features of weather forecast (upto 1430 hours IST of 18^th June 2011)

• Widespread rain/thundershowers would occur over Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal.

• Fairly widespread rain/thundershowers would occur over northeastern states, rest east India, Vidarbha, Chhattisgarh, north Andhra Pradesh, interior Karnataka, Kerala, Lakshadweep and Andaman & Nicobar Islands.

Warning

• Isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur over Orissa during next 48 hours.

• Isolated heavy rainfall would occur over Konkan & Goa, coastal Karnataka, Gangetic West Bengal, Jharkhand and Andaman & Nicobar Islands during next 48 hours.

• Isolated thundersqualls would occur over Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh during next 48 hours. (Warning map enclosed)

Weather Outlook (upto 1430 hours IST of 20^th June, 2011)

• Widespread rainfall would occur over parts of east and adjoining central India and fairly widespread along west coast and over northeastern states.